Many kinds of factors are important for innovations to emerge from technical inventions or organizational concepts. These include the specific benefits of the development for people, companies or other stakeholders compared to existing solutions, the costs of changing, the acceptance of potential operators, users and those affected as well as the reactions from the relevant environment. The innovative strength of a development can therefore only be judged within a complex and multi-layered innovation system.
This applies in particular to innovations in mobility because these always involve the interaction of several players such as local authorities, industry and final customers. The innovation systems here are characterized by regulation, financial dependency and business models. The impact mechanisms of state intervention are equally complex. The adaptation reactions of those affected can enhance effects, weaken or even overcompensate them due to rebound effects. In addition, any long-term effects of intervention have to be taken into account as do any side-effects or repercussions in other economic sectors.
Fraunhofer Mobility uses system dynamic and agent-based analysis models, patent data, bibliometric and socio-scientific methods to illustrate such complex mechanisms.
AsTra – Assessment of TRAnsport Strategies (project page, Fraunhofer ISI) – there are different versions of the AsTra model available for national and European analyses that are adapted to different questions at the intersection of transport, technology, energy systems, the environment and the economy. Together with partner institutes, the modeling tools are regularly updated and extended.
ASSIST - Assessing the Social and Economic Impacts of Past and Future Sustainable Transport (project page, Fraunhofer ISI) – on behalf of the European Commission, the ASSIST project explored how future developments will influence the European transport system and what social, economic and environmental impacts transport policy measures will have.
TRIMODE - Transport Integrated Model for Europe (project page, Fraunhofer IVI) – TRIMODE is a comprehensive transport model developed for the European Commission that depicts passenger and freight transport across the entire EU and the related socio-economic structures in detail.