Maritime policy and environment

Politics and regulation are key drivers of development in the shipping industry. The IMO has created new requirements for seagoing vessels through the Ballast Water Management Convention, which has initiated the development of new systems and certification processes. The regulation of air emissions, especially NOx and SOx, through control zones (NECAs and SECAs) and the global regulation of sulphur content for fuels require changes in propulsion and fuel. In the EU, strict NOx regulations are creating new challenges for inland navigation. Greenhouse gas emissions are also being considered for regulation, requiring further changes in vessels, engines and fuels. Industrial and technology policies for the maritime sector influence the shipbuilding market. The analysis and modelling of policy impacts requires knowledge of policy developments as well as skills in scenario methods and model analysis.

Environmental policy requirements for NOx and SOx mean that inland waterway and seagoing vessels cannot continue to use both heavy fuel oil and conventional diesel engines. Ships will have to be equipped with either exhaust treatment or new fuels and propulsion systems. The possible introduction of a strict greenhouse gas policy will push other technologies - 'Power-to-X', hydrogen and wind. All these technologies are being developed. This is a wide range of possibilities, with different costs, infrastructures and challenges for ship operation. The effects are not certain. This gives the maritime industry many opportunities to develop new products, but at the same time the industry faces major uncertainties through these major changes and the amount many alternatives. Scenarios of the development paths of the technologies and their images are therefore important for the industry. Such analyses must use innovation analyses and simulations to show the contexts of the different market segments as well as the development possibilities of the technologies. Fraunhofer offers technology analyses and scenario modeling through models such as the MATISSE-SHIP model.

Shipping is a service for logistics and passenger transport. It consists of different markets with very different needs. While the cruise industry was booming globally, ferry and ro-pax transport are dependent on local conditions. Tankers are depending on the global oil markets and further freight traffic is depending on the economic situation. Nevertheless, there is a high demand for new technologies in the shipping industry. Even though there are capacity overhangs in shipbuilding due to new shipyards in Asia, new environmental regulations require technical developments to be implemented through new products. Market analyses must therefore take account of the different applications and the impact of developments in trade flows but also in MECAs, SECAs and IMO greenhouse gas regulations. Fraunhofer also undertakes projects on the status of ship and port operations.